An Early Christmas Present?

Calling the economy confusing is an understatement. Across the globe, manufacturing has struggled this year.  Our president screams for lower interest rates despite US unemployment being at record lows.  I feel like Harry Truman, who famously said, “Give me a one-handed economist.  All my economists say ‘on one hand’ then ‘but on the other hand…’”

As I say often to our team, “Numbers don’t lie.”  We have to live in reality.  Maybe reality is getting a little better, at least in the manufacturing world.  As the attached commentary and graph from the investment advisory firm, PIMCO, show, maybe manufacturing has turned the corner and is on a path to growth.  Even Europe is showing signs of life.  Anecdotally, I see signs of growth.  Activity has certainly picked up. 

Happy Hanukah, Merry Christmas, Happy Festivus.  I hope you enjoy the holiday season with family and friends.  Here’s to hoping these numbers aren’t lying and we are on the cusp of improved economic growth. 

From PIMCO:

U-turn
An uptick in manufacturing PMIs during November for several key global markets lent credence to the idea of a potential bottoming in global growth, even as other economic data were mixed. Several factors likely supported the marginal boost – including easier financial conditions (spurred by more accommodative policies around the globe) and nascent signs of both a U.S.?China trade deal and Brexit resolution. The apparent turn in data was particularly notable in the eurozone (Germany and France), highlighting that the improving business sentiment was more marked in regions generally susceptible to trade tensions and external growth conditions.

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